Author Archives: bshirley

A.I. Status: Still Insane

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On a whim, I decided to pose a traveling salesman problem to Bing Chat Copilot, one of the many Large Language Models that have popped into the zeitgeist this year. I know the problem not generally solvable, but there are “close enough” solutions for reasonable numbers of stops.

“Prepare an itinerary for me to visit the county courthouse of every Texas county, visiting each in the daylight only, and staying overnight when needed”, I asked. It did not give me an itinerary. However, it confirmed it didn’t know basic math.

“To visit the county courthouse of every Texas county, you would need to travel a lot of miles and spend a lot of time on the road. According to one estimate, the shortest possible route that covers all the counties is about 3,000 miles long and would take about 60 hours of driving2. That means you would need at least 30 days to complete the trip, assuming you drive for two hours and visit one courthouse per day.”

At 3000 mines, that would give the average distance to the two closest other county courthouses is 11.7 miles. This should seem highly unlikely to anyone who has driven in Texas. So, I asked a simpler question, and it was able to answer reasonably. “What is the driving distance from the Harris County, Texas county courthouse to the courthouse of each neighboring county?” I chose that one only because I live in Houston.

According to the tool Driving Distance Calculator, the driving distance from the Harris County, Texas county courthouse to the courthouse of each neighboring county is as follows:

  • Montgomery County: 43 miles or 69 kilometers
  • Liberty County: 46 miles or 74 kilometers
  • Chambers County: 47 miles or 76 kilometers
  • Galveston County: 51 miles or 82 kilometers
  • Brazoria County: 52 miles or 84 kilometers
  • Fort Bend County: 29 miles or 47 kilometers
  • Waller County: 44 miles or 71 kilometers

These distances are based on the shortest route between the county seats, which may not be the exact locations of the courthouses.

It did a good job of proving my point for me. Harris is most populace county, but not nearly the largest. To confirm, I asked “Which two Texas county courthouses are the closest to each other?”

…the two Texas county courthouses that are the closest to each other are the Brewster County Courthouse and the Presidio County Courthouse. They are located in the neighboring towns of Alpine and Marfa, respectively, and are only 26 miles …apart.

That pretty much seals that deal. And I’ve been to both of those as well. The math for two hours driving per day or one courthouse per day are wrong in so many directions; i don’t know where to start.. I’m pretty sure at one courthouse per day, you cannot visit 256 courthouses in 30 days.

The recent article Researchers Approach New Speed Limit for Seminal Problem in Quanta, reminded me of the task I’ve long wanted to accomplish.

Phileas Fogg and the A.I.

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Frontispiece: Phileas Fogg. An ilustration from the novel "Around the World in Eighty Days" by Jules Verne painted by Alphonse de Neuville and/or Léon Benett.

I tried the Bing Chat on this input:

“I want you to write a poem with 5-line stanzas. Each stanza will be about successive chapters in the novel Around the World in 80 days.”

It’s a task I’ve always wanted to do for myself, but i suspect each chapter would evolve to multiple stanzas to still tell the story completely, and it sounds like quite a bit of effort. The A.I. did fall short of my hoped-for output, blame my input prompt if you will.

The A.I. started… “That sounds like a fun challenge. I’ll try to write a poem based on the summary of the novel that I found on the web1. Here is what I came up with:”, which was certainly a sign it likely wouldn’t be able to map each chapter to a stanza.

Around the world in eighty days
A wager made by Fogg, so bold
With Passepartout, his valet
They start their journey full of gold

In Suez, they meet a detective
Who thinks that Fogg’s a bank thief
He follows them with a motive
To catch and bring him to grief

In India, they rescue a princess
Who joins them in their quest
They face many dangers and distress
But never lose their zest

In Hong Kong, they lose their guide
But find him in Yokohama
They sail across the ocean wide
And face a dreadful drama

In America, they ride a train
That’s attacked by Sioux with force
They escape and fly a plane
But lose a day in their course

They reach the shores of Albion
But Fogg is arrested by Fix
He thinks he’s lost and all is gone
But Passepartout plays a trick

He learns they gained a day in time
By crossing the date line east
He frees his master from the crime
And they reach the club at least

They win the bet by seconds
And Fogg finds love in Aouda
They marry and end their reckonings
Around the world in eighty days

-Bing Chat, Dec 2023 as prompted above

The meter in that poem is awkward at best. My 8th grade self could improve upon it for sure. And the 5-line stanzas seem to be at a 20% discount, and the 37 chapters of the novel, digested to eight stanzas. Such is the early state of the A.I. Large Language Model.

Alas, my literary quest remains unfulfilled for now. Will i complete it first, or will a better A.I. arrive first to provide my desire? Well, I’m not starting it today in any case.

By the Numbers: Superpower

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RussiaUSAChina
Population (M)1423371,410
Land Area (M sq km)16.49.159.33
Density (per sq km)8.6636.8151
GDP (T)4.0821.2824.8
GDP Growth4.75%5.95%8.11%
GDP per capita$28,000$63,700$17,600
GDP per capita – world rank741599
Inflation6.7%4.7%1.0%
Superpowers by the numbers, past, present, future(?)

References:
[1] CIA World Factbook
Population is a 2022 estimate
All GDP numbers are a 2021 estimate

I think the per capita GDP is the most important/interesting comparison. Perhaps I’m biased because it clearly shows an American strength? Given that China has four times the population, if they could double their per capita GDP, it would make them a juggernaut.

The Russian small population compared to the vast empty spaces in the east is well known. It’s interesting to me that they are so threatened by their western neighbors. It will be interesting how the outcome of their invasion of Ukraine will resolve. I feel, like all wars, it will leave them weakened.

The GDP Growth numbers and Inflation numbers are hard to gauge. They are influenced by coming out of covid years. They vary wildly from previous years, and the timing and the actions of different countries effect these.

I certainly was left to wonder who are the top 14 in GDP per capita rankings. My assumption was smaller, richer (likely European cities). That accounts for about half of them. In order: Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Singapore (service-based Southeast Asian economy) , Ireland, Qatar (high-income, oil-and-gas-based Middle Eastern economy), Isle of Man (tax haven), Bermuda (offshore banking), Switzerland, Falkland Islands (British South American territorial economy), United Arab Emirates (historically oil-driven Middle Eastern economy), Cayman Islands (offshore banking), Norway, Macau (Chinese special administrative region economy; known for apparel exports and gambling tourism).

Interestingly, several of the countries don’t have 2021 estimates. I assume the CIA considers them so small and stable/insignificant to not need yearly assessment. They are Liechtenstein, Monaco, Isle of Man, and Falkland Islands.

Behold, the Janus-Faced Governor

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“At about 3:30, the National Rifle Association played videotaped remarks from the governor in the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston. Abbott had originally planned to attend the conference in person, but he canceled Thursday after facing enormous pressure to do so following the mass shooting that occurred at a Uvalde elementary school on Tuesday afternoon.”

300 miles away:

“Do we expect laws to come out of this devastating crime? The answer is absolutely yes. And there will be laws in multiple different subject areas,” the real-life Abbott said. “We need to have a discussion and pass laws to make sure that our schools are safer, and the people of Uvalde and the people of Texas deserve it.”

The status quo is unacceptable. This crime is unacceptable. We’re not going to be here and talking about it and and do nothing about it.”

Greg Abbott signed seven anti-gun safety laws in 2021.

Were the messages of Gov. Abbott different at two different places? – Houston Chronicle, May 30, 2022, Edward McKinley

NFT Hijacking

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NFTs, like all other crypto- and blockchain endeavors are rife with charlatans. You have to do much due diligence on your own to vet who you’re working with.

That’s if you think there’s any inherent value for NFTs in the first place. I personally don’t, and think too many are being lured in by their buzz.

“This Is Not the F–king Way to Do It” -Aaron Mak, Nitish Pahwa, Slate, Feb 2, 2020

“NFTs are not the best way to support artists,” Jeremy Blake wrote. “NFTs exist to enrich cryptocurrency speculators. If you want to support artists, buy their music directly from a website like Bandcamp.”

2021 Top BGG Heavy Games

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BoardGameGeek has been releasing collections of games in different categories leading into the holiday gift-giving season. They have come upon their list of “Heavy Games” – ones that hard-core gamers enjoy. There were five on their list, and I touched each of them.

Steel Whisper's custom paint of a Nemesis Intruder, from BGG https://boardgamegeek.com/image/4464180/nemesis
Intruder from Nemesis

Three of the five are reimplementations of prior games. I think that’s a little sad, but also indicative of the source of the list: polling gamers. But a good meaty game is not that easy to spin out.

  • Nemesis (2018) – As mentioned, this is a veiled implementation of the movie Aliens (1986). I’ve played it twice, and it does a good job of what it sets out to do. You will likely die. In the second play of this I managed to survive on luck and guts and earn a co-win, blowing up the ship with one of the players in hibernation at the end.
  • Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy (2020) – This game reimplements Eclipse (2011), which I have played five times. It’s a massive ships n bits, explore and destroy, epic-length game. I don’t know the details of the update, but I’m sure it delivers a similar experience.
  • Clash of Cultures: Monumental Edition (2021) – This game reimplements Clash of Cultures (2012) and includes several expansions and the base game together. I played the original once in 2014 and don’t much remember it. It’s similar to Eclipse in that it’s hex tiles creating a map, development of controlled areas, and exploration and battling of uncontrolled areas.
  • Dominant Species: Marine (2021) – I’ve played the precursor, Dominant Species (2010), to this one three times. I enjoy the theme and the execution, but it’s a quite lengthy game and I have to be in that mood. This game as well as theming it to the underwater realm changes up several of the mechanisms from the original. I haven’t heard from anyone who’s played both (but i’m sure some of the reviewers make the comparison).
  • Hallertau (2020) – I briefly picked this one up at the recent BGG.Con 2021 in the library, but set it back on the shelves. It was hefty and after a quick look, I didn’t think I had time to read and play this new one. I enjoy other Uve Rosenberg designed games, and would prob’ly like this one. Though many of his are so hefty, I don’t care to revisit them often. It’s a hefty worker placement, with enough added on that it should seem a little fresh.